Twente secured their first Europa League group-stage victory in the previous round against Malmö, but with the competition nearing its conclusion, they now must beat Beşiktaş to stand any chance of reaching the play-offs. A convincing win would significantly boost their hopes, depending on results elsewhere.
Six of Twente’s last seven matches have been played away from home, where they picked up three victories—though not against the strongest opponents. At home, however, they have been far more reliable, suffering only two setbacks in their last six matches—a draw with Ajax in the Eredivisie and a narrow 0:1 defeat to Union Saint-Gilloise in the Europa League. Additionally, Twente’s recent home form is impressive, having scored 11 goals in their last three matches in Enschede.
Beşiktaş were dominant in the Turkish Süper Lig up until mid-autumn, struggling only in the Europa League. However, when their domestic form collapsed, sending them down to sixth place, the club's management began losing patience. Their breaking point came after a home defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv in late November, leading to Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s dismissal. On 19 January, Beşiktaş finally appointed Ole Gunnar Solskjær as their new manager. Under his guidance, they thrashed Athletic Bilbao in their last Europa League match—but that was in Istanbul. Their away form remains inconsistent, as shown by their recent 1:1 draw with struggling Antalyaspor.
While even a draw may not be enough for Beşiktaş, Twente’s only option is victory, making their motivation clearer. Given their strong home form, they are likely to win, though a draw remains a possibility. To stay on the safe side, we’re backing a neutral handicap in favour of the hosts.
